General Electric: Finally, It's Over

April 23, 2018 6:11 pm

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So far, the word “unpredictable” seems to be one of the most-used descriptive choices when characterizing the events of 2018. And, broadly speaking, this appears to be an accurate term. Just a few months ago, if you were to suggest that the NASDAQ would be seeing “flash crash” activity while General Electric (NYSE:GE) was forming a long-term bottom in a multi-year decline, you might have been laughed out of the room. But this appears to be where we are, given the market’s positive reaction to GE’s April 20th announcements and the generalized lack of certainty in almost every aspect of this current financial environment. We have been saying that the stock declines below $ 13 per share would be the worst of it for holders of GE and we maintain this view in light of the company’s recent strategic moves. We are long GE with a bullish stance on the stock as a long-term hold for portfolio strategies.

Chart: CNN Money

Many analysts have argued that there are fundamental earnings problems within the company itself. But, since this is the most “mega” of the “mega-conglomerates” it is critical to assess the trends over at least three years before drawing any drastic conclusions. The earnings performance at GE has been erratic since 2015. But the revenue side of the equation has been much more stable over the same period.

This implies that GE’s problems are internal (fixable) rather than external (not fixable). This is good news, as long as the company is able to reduce operations and focus on the businesses. Currently, jet engines, power plants, and healthcare machines are GE’s biggest money-makers – and we would prefer to see more of the company’s attention (and resources) focused on streamlining these segments.

Earnings Trend Chart: Yahoo Finance

On the other side of the ledger, the power, oil, and gas markets are still presenting major challenges for General Electric, with revenue in those segments showing significant weakness in Q1. Operating losses in the power unit were lower by 38%, but the company has said that improvements have been made in service operation and cost execution for the segment. Operating losses in oil and gas fell by 30%. Other negatives were seen in the GE Capital unit, as it continues with its weaker trends.

For the first quarter, net losses came in at 14 cents per share (roughly in-line with last year’s performance for the period). On a continuing basis, net incomes came in at 4 cents per share (a solid increase from the in the 1 cent per share seen a year ago). On an adjusted basis, the company posted earnings of 16 cents per share (well above analyst estimates calling for 11 cents per share). Total revenues for the quarter gained by 7% (to $ 28.66 billion against expectations of $ 27.45 billion). In the accompanying statement, Flannery highlighted the fact that margins, industrial earnings, and free cash flows are all gaining on an annualized basis – and this is all good news for dividend investors.

What really matters here is the strategic direction, and the willingness within those in management to cut the fat and become a more modern company. There are still very real questions with respect to whether or not Flannery & Co. will be able to address those needs. But we do know that many of the correct moves have already been made. This includes the decisions to sell NBC, Universal Studios, and its real estate portfolio.

These were areas where the company could not reasonably hope to compete, and sacrifices needed to be made in order to preserve as much of the dividend as possible. Another example of a strategic move in the “right” direction was deal to sell GE’s appliance division for $ 5.6 billion. GE is still in recovery-mode, and this is the short-term outlook that should define the long-term outlook for quite some time.

GE Chart Analysis: Dividend-Investments.com

The key point here is that the word “recovery” implies gradual strengthening. In market terms, that equates to positive price movement, and we view GE as a long-term hold with an attractive yield offering for investors. GE cut industrial structural costs by $ 805 million, and they expect to beat prior goals to reduce costs by $ 2 billion for all of 2018. This is strong evidence of progress, and it has not yet been reflected in share prices.

Shorter-term, we have seen some upside and this is an indication that the market is liking what it sees (so far, at least). Since aviation, healthcare, and transportation divisions all experienced double-digit profit growth, these moves should be viewed as valid. Prior resistance under $ 14 should now be expected to act as price support and we believe that a long-term bottom has likely formed at $ 12.80.

What is your position on GE? We look forward to reading your comments. Stay tuned to Dividend Investors and receive our next alerts by clicking the “Follow” button at the top of the page.

Disclosure: I am/we are long GE.

I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

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