Sentiment Speaks: GLD May Not Yet Be Ready To Break Out

February 18, 2018 6:02 pm

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For those that follow me regularly, you will know that I have been tracking a set up for the VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF (NYSEARCA:GDX), which I analyze as a proxy for the metals mining market. I believe that the GDX can outperform the general equity market once we confirm a long term break out has begun, and I still think we can see it in occur in 2018. This week, I will provide an update to the GDX, but want to also discuss the GLD, which is an ETF which attempts to mirror the movements of gold. While I have gone on record as to why I do not think the GLD is a wise long-term investment hold, I will still use it to track the market movements.

While the GDX did move through the resistance region I noted last weekend, it did not do so in what I wanted to see as an “impulsive” move. That is a term of art which means a standard 5-wave structure which adheres to our Fibonacci Pinball methodology. Rather, when the market broke out over 22.30, it set up to run strongly towards the 23.20 region, which is the analysis I presented to those that follow my work daily. In fact, just before the market opened on Valentines Day, I sent out an Alert to my members noting how I viewed the smaller degree structure:

“Over 22.30, and we have an initial indication of a bottom in place. 23.20 then becomes the next higher resistance.”

As we saw, the market broke over 22.30, and then moved quite strongly higher, and topped out this week at 23.16. But, as I noted once we reached the 23.20 resistance region, this can still be a 4th wave rally and point us down towards the low 20 region unless we are able to take out the 23.20 resistance strongly. As we now see, the market may be pointing us directly down towards that low 20 region in the GDX, as we have been unable to break over 23.20, and have turned down.

As far as the GLD is concerned, this is still presenting as a very bullish pattern. While I would have loved to have seen this break out already, the current micro structure is not strongly suggestive of an immediate break out. In fact, should we see an impulsive drop below 127 in the coming week, it opens the door to a drop down to at least the 124 region, but more preferably down to the 121.50-122 region, before we can set up again for a break out.

But, as I have noted many times before, for those who are looking for a long-term investment hold for gold, I would not suggest using the GLD as I have presented in this webinar I did some time ago. Rather, I tend to use the GLD as a trading vehicle rather than an investment vehicle.

Lastly, a break out over last week’s high in either GLD or GDX can alter the analysis presented above, as it is contingent on last week’s highs holding as resistance. Remember, we cannot know what will happen in the future with certainty. Rather, we can plan for what may happen based upon probabilities. But, we also have to know rather quickly when and where those probabilities are no longer in our favor. Remaining in a wrong position while “hoping” is what destroys more accounts than anything else.

Housekeeping Matters

It seems that Seeking Alpha has changed the way they tag articles. So, while my articles used to be sent out as an email to those that follow the metals complex, they are now only being sent out to those that have chosen to “follow” me. So, if you would like notification as to when my articles are published, please hit the button at the top to “follow” me. Thank you.

Disclosure: I am/we are long PHYSICAL METALS AND VARIOUS MINING STOCKS.

I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Additional disclosure: I hedged my portfolio on Friday with stops at 23.20 GDX.

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