Tag Archives: Break
For those that follow me regularly, you will know that I have been tracking a set up for the VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF (NYSEARCA:GDX), which I analyze as a proxy for the metals mining market. I believe that the GDX can outperform the general equity market once we confirm a long term break out has begun, and I still think we can see it in occur in 2018. This week, I will provide an update to the GDX, but want to also discuss the GLD, which is an ETF which attempts to mirror the movements of gold. While I have gone on record as to why I do not think the GLD is a wise long-term investment hold, I will still use it to track the market movements.
While the GDX did move through the resistance region I noted last weekend, it did not do so in what I wanted to see as an “impulsive” move. That is a term of art which means a standard 5-wave structure which adheres to our Fibonacci Pinball methodology. Rather, when the market broke out over 22.30, it set up to run strongly towards the 23.20 region, which is the analysis I presented to those that follow my work daily. In fact, just before the market opened on Valentines Day, I sent out an Alert to my members noting how I viewed the smaller degree structure:
“Over 22.30, and we have an initial indication of a bottom in place. 23.20 then becomes the next higher resistance.”
As we saw, the market broke over 22.30, and then moved quite strongly higher, and topped out this week at 23.16. But, as I noted once we reached the 23.20 resistance region, this can still be a 4th wave rally and point us down towards the low 20 region unless we are able to take out the 23.20 resistance strongly. As we now see, the market may be pointing us directly down towards that low 20 region in the GDX, as we have been unable to break over 23.20, and have turned down.
As far as the GLD is concerned, this is still presenting as a very bullish pattern. While I would have loved to have seen this break out already, the current micro structure is not strongly suggestive of an immediate break out. In fact, should we see an impulsive drop below 127 in the coming week, it opens the door to a drop down to at least the 124 region, but more preferably down to the 121.50-122 region, before we can set up again for a break out.
But, as I have noted many times before, for those who are looking for a long-term investment hold for gold, I would not suggest using the GLD as I have presented in this webinar I did some time ago. Rather, I tend to use the GLD as a trading vehicle rather than an investment vehicle.
Lastly, a break out over last week’s high in either GLD or GDX can alter the analysis presented above, as it is contingent on last week’s highs holding as resistance. Remember, we cannot know what will happen in the future with certainty. Rather, we can plan for what may happen based upon probabilities. But, we also have to know rather quickly when and where those probabilities are no longer in our favor. Remaining in a wrong position while “hoping” is what destroys more accounts than anything else.
It seems that Seeking Alpha has changed the way they tag articles. So, while my articles used to be sent out as an email to those that follow the metals complex, they are now only being sent out to those that have chosen to “follow” me. So, if you would like notification as to when my articles are published, please hit the button at the top to “follow” me. Thank you.
The Market Pinball Wizard
Our relatively new service entitled The Market Pinball Wizard has recently moved up to the 7th largest service in the Seeking Alpha Marketplace offerings of 163 services, while we have exceeded 21,000 followers on Seeking Alpha.
In fact, these are the most recent posts by our members:
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Disclosure: I am/we are long PHYSICAL METALS AND VARIOUS MINING STOCKS.
I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
Additional disclosure: I hedged my portfolio on Friday with stops at 23.20 GDX.
After I had graduated from college, I was working 20 hours a week as a coach and 30 hours a week as a high school counselor. On top of that, I was attending graduate school. I was making good grades (3.7 average), doing a good job as a first-time school counselor and a pretty good job as a coach. In a five year period, I coached 20 state champions, three regional champions, and one national champion.
Many people would have considered my accomplishments to be respectable and possibly even impressive; but for me, I was miserable. I was miserable because I spent very little time focusing on the things I did well and tremendous amounts of time thinking about where I felt like I fell short. I wasn’t getting a 4.0, I wasn’t making more money, and my athletes weren’t the dominating force I wanted them to be.
I had the “perfectionist mentality.” I would do 100 things well in any given day and 1 thing less than perfect, and it was that 1 less than perfect thing that I was focused on. I was constantly beating myself up and rarely giving myself any credit.
Luckily for me, I was being forced to read sport and performance psychology textbooks at the time, and the one thing that kept showing up in the research was something called “expectancy theory.” Expectancy theory basically states that what a person focuses on expands. In essence, allowing myself to focus on what I didn’t have was actually causing me to have less. I didn’t believe this at first. In fact, I used to believe that beating myself up for not accomplishing more would actually cause me to perform better.
The research, however, was too strong to ignore. All the research was saying the same thing–negative self-talk does not cause improved performance. In fact, it’s counter-productive. Instead of focusing on what I didn’t have, I needed to focus on what I did have or what I wanted to have.
For me (and for many perfectionists), thinking about what I do have doesn’t actually do a lot for me. However, focusing on what I want to have and, specifically, what it will take on my part to get it is a tremendous help. In doing so, I actually cause myself to become more successful. Further, it is undoubtedly a much more enjoyable way to experience life.
The key to channeling the perfectionist mentality into something advantageous is to first be aware of the thoughts in your head. When you find yourself focusing on what you don’t have or what you are not happy with, make it a point to answer the following solution-focused question:
What is one thing I can do that could make my current situation better?
You don’t have to make your current situation perfect, but do identify one thing that will make it even just a little bit better. The trick is to become relentless with this process. By “relentless,” I mean that within 60 seconds of having any thought focused on what you are unhappy or dissatisfied with, re-direct your thoughts to solutions by answering the above question.
For most individuals, especially the perfectionists, it is a very foreign process to replace problem-focused thoughts with solution-focused thinking. A method of training your brain to develop a relentless solution focus is to answer the following three questions at the close of each day:
- What three things did I do well today?
- What one thing do I want to improve on tomorrow?
- What is one thing I can do differently that could make the above mentioned improvement?
By making the commitment to answering these three questions daily and whenever negative thinking occurs, you will literally train your brain to use expectancy theory to your advantage. Remember, that which you focus on expands, and if you are constantly focusing on solutions, your success will grow. Not to mention, this is a much more enjoyable way to live your life, and I can assure you that the perfectionist tendencies will become an asset rather than a hindrance.
Twitter has responded to people who criticized it for not taking down President Donald Trump’s bellicose tweet about North Korea, which led the country to claim he had declared war on it. The tweet was too newsworthy to take down, the social media platform said.
The tweet, which Trump posted on Saturday, followed a speech to the United Nations General Assembly by North Korean foreign minister Ri Yong Ho.
Ri said it was “inevitable” that his country would fire missiles at the U.S. mainland. In response, Trump tweeted: “Just heard Foreign Minister of North Korea speak at U.N. If he echoes thoughts of Little Rocket Man, they won’t be around much longer!”
Twitter’s terms of service claim the company does not “tolerate behavior that crosses the line into abuse, including behavior that harasses, intimidates, or uses fear to silence another user’s voice.” Many people have wondered why, given the nature of Trump’s Twitter activity, this rule hasn’t led to his suspension from the platform.
In a thread late Monday, Twitter’s policy team addressed the question. The team insisted that it holds “all accounts to the same rules,” but pointed out the factors it takes into account when assessing violations.
“Among the considerations is ‘newsworthiness’ and whether a tweet is of public interest,” the policy team wrote. “This has long been internal policy and we’ll soon update our public-facing rules to reflect this.”
“We need to do better on this, and will,” the team added.
Twitter has a longstanding problem with abuse that many see as contributing to its stagnant user growth. It has brought in several new measures this year to address the issue, such as making it harder for abusive tweets to reach the eyes of their targets, and banning more people for their trollish behavior.
The U.S. administration has strongly denied that Trump’s Saturday tweet was a declaration of war, with White House spokesperson Sarah Sanders calling the assertion “absurd.”