Tag Archives: Forecast

Apple supplier AMS cuts forecast, indicating poor iPhone demand
November 15, 2018 12:01 pm|Comments (0)

VIENNA (Reuters) – Austria’s AMS (AMS.S), which makes facial recognition technology, became the latest Apple supplier to cut its revenue forecast, adding to growing evidence that the latest iPhones are not selling well.

The logo of the multinational semiconductor manufacturer AMS (Austria Mikro Systeme) is seen during a annual news conference, in Zurich, Switzerland February 6, 2018. REUTERS/Moritz Hager

The Swiss-listed group cut its fourth-quarter revenue outlook by 15 percent and pushed back its medium-term targets, blaming “recent demand changes from a major customer”.

AMS, which specializes in sensors, did not name Apple as the customer, but analysts estimate that the U.S. giant accounts for 40 percent of the Austrian group’s sales.

Apple (AAPL.O) shocked investors two weeks ago with a lower than expected sales forecast for the Christmas quarter, prompting suppliers including U.S. firm Lumentum (LITE.O), British chipmaker IQE (IQE.L) and screen maker Japan Display (6740.T) to issue warnings that pointed to weakness in new iPhone sales.

Like Lumentum, AMS supplies Apple with software components needed for its FaceID technology.

Anglo-German chip designer Dialog Semiconductor (DLGS.DE), which struck a $ 600 million deal with the U.S. tech giant last month bucked the negative trend when it said late on Wednesday it does not see a drop in demand from Apple.

Dialog justified this by pointing out that it supplies many more products than the latest iPhones.

For the past year, investors had largely been willing to overlook stagnating unit sales of the iPhone because average selling prices kept rising. But Apple now faces fierce competition from mid-priced phones from makers such as Xiaomi Corp (1810.HK).

The California-based firm started selling its latest phone generation, the iPhone XS and XS Max in September and the XR model last month.

The new AMS guidance suggested between 11 and 18 million fewer iPhones would be produced in the fourth quarter than an initially estimated 77-82 million, Credit Suisse analysts said in a note to customers.

“This is largely in-line to read from recent Lumentum warning,” they said, adding the Lumentum guidance would have implied an impact of 15-20 million iPhones.

VOLATILE SHARES

AMS shares gained as much as 6.4 percent to 29.65 Swiss francs after a steep drop in early trade.

They have lost nearly 30 percent since Apple’s latest earnings release and are down 70 percent since the beginning of the year and some investors see a buying opportunity, said traders.

AMS expects revenue to come in between $ 480 million and $ 520 million in the three months to Dec. 31, compared with the $ 570-$ 610 million it forecast last month.

The adjusted operating margin for the quarter is expected to reach the low to mid-teen percentage range after previous guidance for the margin to rise to 16-20 percent.

AMS also abandoned its 2019 revenue target of more than $ 2.7 billion, saying it now expects annual double-digit revenue growth for the coming years.

It still aims for a 30 percent adjusted operating margin but no longer gives a specific time frame. It had already postponed the target to 2020 from 2019 in July, at the time due to order delays from a major customer.

“These guys have no visibility any more,” said Mark Taylor, senior sales trader at Mirabaud Securities’ Global Thematic Group.

AMS, which has invested heavily in research and development and in production expansion, is now seeking to address underutilized facilities, increasing competition and its reliance on Apple.

Although a number of analysts have cut their recommendations recently, many target price recommendations are still above 40 Swiss francs. “I wouldn’t be surprised to see (the stock) rally,” said Taylor.

additional reporting by Helen Reid in London; Editing by David Goodman and Keith Weir

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Etsy raises 2018 revenue growth forecast, shares hit record
June 14, 2018 6:02 pm|Comments (0)

(Reuters) – Etsy Inc on Thursday raised its full-year revenue growth forecast, boosted by an increase in its transaction fee for sellers, sending shares of the company surging 35 percent to a record high.

FILE PHOTO – A sign advertising the online seller Etsy Inc. is seen outside the Nasdaq market site in Times Square following Etsy’s initial public offering (IPO) on the Nasdaq in New York April 16, 2015. REUTERS/Mike Segar/File Photo

The share jump pushed up the company’s market cap by $ 1.4 billion.

The site for handmade goods, which struggled after its initial public offering in 2015, began its turnaround effort after board member and former eBay executive Josh Silverman took charge as chief executive officer in May last year after ex-CEO Chad Dickerson stepped down.

Silverman came to Etsy amid concerns about slowing growth, poor functionality of the company’s website and the specter of competition from Amazon.com Inc, which launched a marketplace for handmade goods in 2015.

The company now expects revenue growth of 32 percent to 34 percent in 2018, up from its previous forecast of 22 percent to 24 percent. It also raised the higher end of its gross merchandise sales growth range.

Etsy’s share movement was in contrast to arts and crafts specialty retailer Michaels Cos Inc, which dropped 15 percent after it expected flat comparable sales in the second quarter and comparable sales growth of up to 1.5 percent in fiscal 2018.

Etsy, however has beaten average analysts’ estimates in every quarter since Silverman’s appointment to the helm. It missed estimates in the four quarters prior to his arrival.

The company’s shares have more than doubled in the last 12 months.

“Etsy management has improved its merchandising, which in turn has led to stronger merchant sales. As Etsy is doing more for the merchants, Etsy is able to charge more, especially since the fees were relatively cheaper than competitors,” analyst Ronald Bookbinder of IFS Securities said.

Etsy said it would increase the transaction fee it charges when a seller makes a sale to 5 percent from 3.5 percent. The new fee would apply to the cost of shipping.

The company said it plans to increase direct marketing spending by at least 40 percent in 2018 and revamp community platforms.

Etsy has shifted its focus to areas that are showing the most growth for the handmade marketplace, particularly on its core e-commerce site.

The company has improved its website’s search function and uses artificial intelligence to provide better product recommendations for customers. In 2017 the company also ran holiday promotions for the first time.

“They took that really good business model and fine tuned the engine and now they have got that engine firing on all cylinders,” D.A. Davidson & Co. analyst Tom Forte said.

Reporting by Arjun Panchadar in Bengaluru; Editing by Bernard Orr and Shounak Dasgupta

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Week 49 Breakout Forecast: Short-Term Picks To Give You An Edge
December 3, 2017 12:23 pm|Comments (0)

Positive Acceleration Momentum Stocks

This week I have selected 8 breakout stocks from the following sectors: 2 healthcare, 4 basic materials, 1 technology and 1 services. Detailed charts for each stock are at the end of the article.

The new selections of positive momentum stocks for this week include:

  1. Baytex Energy Corp. (BTE) – Basic Materials / Independent Oil & Gas
  2. Cogentix Medical, Inc. (CGNT) – Healthcare / Medical Appliances & Equipment
  3. Forum Energy Technologies, Inc. (FET) – Basic Materials / Oil & Gas Equipment & Services
  4. Noble Corporation (NE) – Basic Materials / Oil & Gas Equipment & Services
  • Four additional long positions are available to subscribers.
  • Four negative acceleration momentum stocks available to subscribers.
  • Live daily chart tracking and momentum updates for subscribers are available along with detailed portfolio performance of individual stocks.

Thumbnail images of the Positive Momentum Portfolio Week 49


Intro

Welcome to the Momentum Breakout Selection list for Week 49. This article provides the complete list of Breakout Stocks for subscribers only. The full performance results for all the different portfolios are linked in the 2017 YTD performance results with important descriptions of the different portfolio methodologies. A brief summary of the selection methodology for these momentum stocks can be found in my primer article on quick pick momentum accelerators.

Performance Summary


This past Week 48 saw substantial volatility in the S&P 500 with the highest two consecutive weekly gains totaling 2.44% since May 28th. Consistent with the 63 years of historical S&P 500 returns charted below, November also saw the S&P 500 gain 2.81%, the largest monthly gain this year since 3.72% in February. I continue to maintain several market hedges in VIX as I have detailed on the message board. During the 260 point intraday decline in the Dow this week the VIX JAN calls saw gains of more than 44%. This significant
increase in volatility could be an early signal of a pending market top. Again, historically the S&P 500 tends to perform extremely well in December.Total cumulative long portfolio returns by week of the past 5 weeks (t-5) are listed below through the end of Week 48 to illustrate rolling returns of prior top performers through Friday:

Breakout Forecast Long Portfolio Returns past 5 weeks / Top Performers
Week 47 (t-1) +5.56% (EXPR) +31.52%, (NGVC) +25.60%, (SPWH) +11.54%
Week 46 (t-2) +1.64% (SORL) +24.87%, (PIRS) +11.38%, (AUTO) +8.20%
Week 45 (t-3) +7.30% (DNR) +44.70%, (IOVA) +12.82%, (SLCA) +11.43%
Week 44 (t-4) +8.90% (MRNS) +21.37%, (WLL) +11.08%, (ARAY) +8.25%
Week 43 (t-5) +15.18% (CPRX) +59.42%, (VRAY) +47.76%, (BBG) +31.72%

As I continue my study, the typical optimum momentum holding duration from this analysis appears to be one to three weeks, but as the rolling 5 week table above illustrates, some of these stocks can carry positive momentum for many weeks and some may return to the selection list in the current week.

The breakout frequency of 5% and 10% gainers per week continues to outpace the broad market by 4-5 times higher rates of occurrence in the same population of stocks (non-OTC, non-ETF). As the chart below indicates through Week 46, the average number of breakouts above 10% in a trading week is 26% of the breakout portfolio compared to 3.42% in the comparable population of stocks in the US market exchanges. This is a frequency greater than 7 times the expected breakout rate of the greater market population.

All past selections of individual returns are available on my list of articles by Breakout Forecast Week. This includes daily and weekly returns for all stocks selected since the beginning of 2017. These stock selections are intended to provide the highest probability of greater than 10% gains within the first week (5 trading days) by focusing on accelerating momentum characteristics detailed in my primer article linked above.

End of week results for Week 48:


Several of these stocks from last week continue to show momentum into next week. You can view their progress on the live chart link included for subscribers.
End of Week 48 Benchmark Index:


Charts of Week 49 Selections are as follows:

Positive Acceleration Momentum Stocks

Baytex Energy Corp. (BTE) – Basic Materials / Independent Oil & Gas

Cogentix Medical, Inc. (CGNT) – Healthcare / Medical Appliances & Equipment Forum Energy Technologies, Inc. (FET) – Basic Materials / Oil & Gas Equipment & Services

Noble Corporation (NE) – Basic Materials / Oil & Gas Equipment & Services

Value Portfolio Results through week 48

The following are the weekly updates for each of value portfolios generated every month and tracked in addition to the weekly breakout selections. The Forensic Analysis Value Stock selection portfolio returns are listed below. The latest December selections of the Forensic Portfolios are available here.

Forensic Selections with Adverse Scores Returns YTD Number of Periods
July (-) Forensic Portfolio 1 68.11% 5 months
Aug (-) Forensic Portfolio 2 39.05% 4 months
Sep (-) Forensic Portfolio 3 23.47% 3 months
Oct (-) Forensic Portfolio 4 -1.59% 2 months
Nov (-) Forensic Portfolio 5 4.80% 1 month
Forensic Selections with Positive Scores Returns YTD Number of Periods
July (+) Forensic Portfolio 1 15.50% 5 months
Aug (+) Forensic Portfolio 2 11.89% 4 months
Sep (+) Forensic Portfolio 3 3.06% 3 months
Oct (+) Forensic Portfolio 4 -4.40% 2 months
Nov (+) Forensic Portfolio 5 -6.66% 1 month

The Piotroski value model is well documented in 17 years of financial literature to outperform other value selection models. This is part of an ongoing study to test the selection performance through multiple portfolios over one year. Further detail and charts of each of the Piotroski Portfolios are available here.

Piotroski Enhanced Value Returns YTD Number of Periods
August Portfolio 9.41% 4 months
September Portfolio 10.10% 3 months
October Portfolio 4.92% 2 months
November Portfolio 2.10% 1 month

As always, I hope you capture the most beneficial returns of this small sample of the weekly breakout selections and have a profitable week of trading! Thank you for reading my articles. If you want free future updates, just click the Follow button at the top of the page.

If you enjoy receiving my Breakout Forecast updates each week, please also consider receiving the complete eight long selections and four short selections every week with a subscription today! Subscribers also receive the full updates with more detail well in advance of this article prior to the market open every week.

Thank you!

JD Henning, PhD, CFE

Disclosure: I am/we are long DNR NGVC EXPR SPWH MRNS.

I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Editor’s Note: This article covers one or more stocks trading at less than $ 1 per share and/or with less than a $ 100 million market cap. Please be aware of the risks associated with these stocks.

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Chip gear maker Applied Materials posts strong results, forecast
November 17, 2017 12:00 am|Comments (0)

(Reuters) – Applied Materials Inc reported better-than-expected quarterly results and gave a strong current-quarter forecast as the world’s largest supplier of tools to make semiconductors enjoys strong demand in its chip and display businesses.

The company’s shares were up about 1 percent in trading after the bell on Thursday, reversing course from a drop of nearly 2 percent immediately after the results were released.

Applied Materials has now topped analysts estimates in each quarter of the latest fiscal year, helping its shares surge about 79 percent this year, making them the fourth best performer on the Philadelphia semiconductor index.

Applied Materials, whose results are seen as a barometer for the semiconductor industry, has been benefiting from higher demand for 3D NAND memory chips from smartphone makers and the shift to organic light-emitting diode technology for displays.

Worldwide shipments of PCs, tablets and smartphones are expected to exceed 2.35 billion units in 2018, an increase of 2.0 percent from 2017, according to a report published by research firm Gartner in October. (gtnr.it/2AUZwTp)

While Applied Materials has benefited from surging sales of smartphones, it is also set to cash in on the rise of new technologies such as AI, big data, machine learning, augmented reality and autonomous driving.

“The semiconductor business has clear tailwinds around next generation areas such as AI and other parts of the tech food chain,” Daniel Ives, analyst at GBH Insights said.

The Santa Clara, California-based company forecast current-quarter adjusted earnings per share of 94 cents to $ 1.02 and net sales of $ 4.00 billion to $ 4.20 billion.

The forecasts were comfortably above analysts’ average estimate of a profit of 91 cents and revenue of $ 3.96 billion, according to Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

The company said its net income rose 61 percent to $ 982 million in the fourth quarter. Excluding items, it earned 93 cents per share, 2 cents above analysts’ estimates.

Total net sales rose 20.4 percent to $ 3.97 billion. Analysts were expecting $ 3.94 billion.

Sales from its display business, which caters to television, PC and smartphone makers, rose nearly 50 percent to $ 677 million and handily beat analysts estimates of $ 452 million.

“There is huge demand for new display technology, while … average screen sizes for both TVs and mobile devices are growing considerably,” Chief Executive Gary Dickerson said on a post-earnings call.

Revenue from its semiconductor business, the company’s largest, rose 14.3 percent to $ 2.43 billion, topping analysts’ estimate of $ 2.13 billion.

Reporting by Laharee Chatterjee in Bengaluru; Editing by Savio D’Souza

Our Standards:The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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Cloud Management For The OpenStack Market 2017 Global Analysis, Opportunities And Forecast …
February 20, 2017 10:40 am|Comments (0)

This report studies the global Cloud Management for the OpenStack market, analyzes and researches the Cloud Management for the OpenStack …


Cloud Computing

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