Tag Archives: Speaks

Sentiment Speaks: This Is It For Gold
June 24, 2018 6:15 pm|Comments (0)

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Sentiment Speaks:  Is It 2016 Again For U.S. Equities, Emerging Markets And Gold?
June 10, 2018 6:07 pm|Comments (0)

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Sentiment Speaks: How Do You Make Money With A Broken Clock?
May 27, 2018 6:06 pm|Comments (0)

For those that are familiar with American football, you would likely understand the strategy that the team that controls the clock usually controls the game.

But, what happens if the clock is broken and the game just keeps going and going and going? Well, it is no different than when an analyst makes a claim that the stock market is going to crash, and makes this claim week after week after week, and does this for months or even years on end. Since there is no time limit to the game, eventually, this analyst can “win” the game.

This is what we call the “broken clock syndrome,” and we see this quite often in our financial markets. But, the problem is that one cannot make money in the market with a broken clock. Remember what Ben Franklin once said: “Lost time is never found again.” So, the opportunity cost of following a broken clock is truly immeasurable.

But, how do you know that you are using a broken clock?

This is where you must demand objective standards from any analyst you read. So, while I still see articles looking for the financial markets to blow up, and others pointing to various factors which will kill the bull market, and even others saying “bye-bye” to the bull market and hello to the bear market, this is no different than what we have been reading from many analysts for years now. Yet, have you ever noted that none of them will provide you with an objective standard through which you can determine if their analysis will be correct at any point before 5 years from when they make their claims?

Several years ago, when I was publishing my articles claiming that we will see a rally from the 1800 region in the SPX to 2600+ in the SPX, I would see many comments disagreeing with my perspective, as most market participants at the time could not fathom such a rally.

In fact, I remember one such commenter who spoke with a certain amount of authority and continually claimed (from 2013) that we are entering a major deflationary period which would cause our stock market to crash. He had many of those reading his comments completely convinced of his perspective.

The manner in which I challenged him was to simply ask him at what point would he know his analysis was wrong? Would it be if we rallied over 1900? Over 2000? Over 2100? Yet, he constantly refused to provide me with any objective standards to suggest he was wrong in his expectations. All he claimed was they there was no way that the market will rally up to my target.

Are you starting to see what I mean about needing objective standards? Yet, very few analysts utilize analysis methodologies that can provide such objective standards. That would classify their analysis as being akin to simply guessing without knowing when they are wrong.

Remember, markets are non-linear in nature, and will move up and down. As trees do not grow to the sky, markets do not continue up indefinitely. We will always have corrections. So, if an analyst makes a claim that the market is going to drop by 50%, it really is more important to know if the market will correct from where we currently reside or if it will correct after a 100% rally. If the analyst claims weekly that the market will correct 50% during the period of time in which the market rallies for 100%, then the analyst is not providing you with any guidance whatsoever. This is basically what we have seen from many analysts over the last 3-5 years.

I would suggest you begin to demand objective standards from the analysis you read, rather than simply seek confirmation of your own bearish tendencies.

So, allow me to provide you my analysis for the upcoming week, with objective standards, as I often do. As long as the market remains over our upper support of 2700SPX, I am looking for the market to rally up towards the 2760SPX region. But, the next rally I expect (should we see it in the coming week) will likely set us up for another larger degree decline, with an initial target in the 2650SPX region. Ultimately, I expect the market to test the 2600-2650SPX region again (and possibly even lower) before we begin the rally I expect over 3000.

For those of you that have been following me closely, you would know that I have been expecting the market to rally over 3000 after this correction runs its course. And, if the market should strongly move through the 2823SPX region before another larger degree downside structure takes hold, then this is my objective standard that suggests the market is likely already heading up over 3000 earlier than I had initially expected.

Housekeeping Matter

Please note that articles are now only being sent out to those that have chosen to “Follow” me. So, if you would like notification as to when my articles are published, please hit the button at the top to “Follow” me. Thank you.

Memorial Day Message

This weekend, I took the liberty of watching the movie “Ike: Countdown To D-day.” Watching this movie struck an emotional cord within me on this Memorial Day weekend, which we each should feel to the depths of our being living privileged to be free men and women today. We should each feel an immense and immeasurable sense of gratitude to the men and women of our military, along with their families who sacrifice so much alongside them.

The sacrifices made by the individuals on that day of June 6th 1944, and throughout the entire war, and throughout all of American history, have indebted each and every one of us to them and their families in a way we cannot and will not ever be able to repay. The sacrifice made by them, their mothers, fathers, brothers, sisters and children is something we can never fully appreciate, especially during the time in history in which we are all now blessed to live due to their selflessness.

As I now am moved to write this heartfelt message, with tears streaming down my cheeks, I recognize that this is but only a small token of appreciation I may be showing. To all those within the reaches of my words who have served in our armed forces or who have lost loved ones who have served in our armed forces, please accept my and my family’s deepest and most earnest felt gratitude for your service to our country and, indeed, to all of mankind. It is due to your sacrifice that we proudly stand today and proclaim “let freedom ring.” G-d bless you, your families, and the United States of America.

Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

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Sentiment Speaks: The Stock Market Is Going To Crash
May 6, 2018 6:01 pm|Comments (0)

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Sentiment Speaks: GLD May Not Yet Be Ready To Break Out
February 18, 2018 6:02 pm|Comments (0)

For those that follow me regularly, you will know that I have been tracking a set up for the VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF (NYSEARCA:GDX), which I analyze as a proxy for the metals mining market. I believe that the GDX can outperform the general equity market once we confirm a long term break out has begun, and I still think we can see it in occur in 2018. This week, I will provide an update to the GDX, but want to also discuss the GLD, which is an ETF which attempts to mirror the movements of gold. While I have gone on record as to why I do not think the GLD is a wise long-term investment hold, I will still use it to track the market movements.

While the GDX did move through the resistance region I noted last weekend, it did not do so in what I wanted to see as an “impulsive” move. That is a term of art which means a standard 5-wave structure which adheres to our Fibonacci Pinball methodology. Rather, when the market broke out over 22.30, it set up to run strongly towards the 23.20 region, which is the analysis I presented to those that follow my work daily. In fact, just before the market opened on Valentines Day, I sent out an Alert to my members noting how I viewed the smaller degree structure:

“Over 22.30, and we have an initial indication of a bottom in place. 23.20 then becomes the next higher resistance.”

As we saw, the market broke over 22.30, and then moved quite strongly higher, and topped out this week at 23.16. But, as I noted once we reached the 23.20 resistance region, this can still be a 4th wave rally and point us down towards the low 20 region unless we are able to take out the 23.20 resistance strongly. As we now see, the market may be pointing us directly down towards that low 20 region in the GDX, as we have been unable to break over 23.20, and have turned down.

As far as the GLD is concerned, this is still presenting as a very bullish pattern. While I would have loved to have seen this break out already, the current micro structure is not strongly suggestive of an immediate break out. In fact, should we see an impulsive drop below 127 in the coming week, it opens the door to a drop down to at least the 124 region, but more preferably down to the 121.50-122 region, before we can set up again for a break out.

But, as I have noted many times before, for those who are looking for a long-term investment hold for gold, I would not suggest using the GLD as I have presented in this webinar I did some time ago. Rather, I tend to use the GLD as a trading vehicle rather than an investment vehicle.

Lastly, a break out over last week’s high in either GLD or GDX can alter the analysis presented above, as it is contingent on last week’s highs holding as resistance. Remember, we cannot know what will happen in the future with certainty. Rather, we can plan for what may happen based upon probabilities. But, we also have to know rather quickly when and where those probabilities are no longer in our favor. Remaining in a wrong position while “hoping” is what destroys more accounts than anything else.

Housekeeping Matters

It seems that Seeking Alpha has changed the way they tag articles. So, while my articles used to be sent out as an email to those that follow the metals complex, they are now only being sent out to those that have chosen to “follow” me. So, if you would like notification as to when my articles are published, please hit the button at the top to “follow” me. Thank you.

Disclosure: I am/we are long PHYSICAL METALS AND VARIOUS MINING STOCKS.

I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Additional disclosure: I hedged my portfolio on Friday with stops at 23.20 GDX.

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Sentiment Speaks: Mining Stocks Have Been The Most Frustrating Trade For The Last Year
February 11, 2018 6:01 pm|Comments (0)

For those that follow me regularly, you will know that I have been tracking a set up for the VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF (NYSEARCA:GDX), which I analyze as a proxy for the metals mining market. I believe that the GDX can outperform the general equity market once we confirm a long term break out has begun, and I still think we can see it in occur in 2018. But, after last week’s break down below the December 2017 low, the set up will have to be resurrected first in the coming months.

I am not sure what more there is to say. We have had several break-out set ups break down in the GDX over the last year. Yet, all the market has done is consolidate sideways for an entire year. Clearly, this is not something I would have or could have expected. Moreover, we still have a 5-wave structure off the 2015 lows, which still keeps us in a longer term bullish perspective.

Since the GDX is a composition of a whole host of mining stocks, I think I have to resolve myself to understanding that the weaker stocks have certainly been a strong drag on the overall fund. So, until the weaker stocks prove they have a bottom in place, it seems quite clear that the GDX will continue to frustrate us.

With that being said, the miners we are holding in our EWT Miners Portfolio are presenting as exceptionally strong, especially relative to the GDX as a whole. Many of them seem as ready to break out similarly to the manner in which GLD seems poised to break out. Yet, when I go back to look at stocks like ABX, it seems quite clear why the GDX has been underperforming.

As you can see from the attached ABX chart, it has followed through down to lower lows in this current pullback. When I highlighted this chart a few months ago to our members of my The Market Pinball Service, I noted this lower low potential, and the ABX is now fulfilling that potential. But, as I also noted in those updates, the long-term potential being presented by this chart is quite strong. As you can see, the positive divergences evident on this chart as the market has dropped down to just below its .618 retracement of its 2016 rally is quite stark. This is often a precursor to a strong reversal which will likely kick off the larger degree 3rd wave which has failed to take hold over the last year.

Within the micro count of ABX, it would seem we are completing the wave v of (C) of y of ii. But, within wave v, we may still see another 4-5 structure before this completes its downside. That means that the 14 region is going to be the resistance over which it will have to rally in impulsive fashion to begin to signal that this wave ii has finally completed. Should that occur, we may see the ABX catch up quite quickly to the rest of the complex behind which it has been lagging.

So, in order to align the GDX chart with the ABX chart, I have to consider any bounce below the 22-22.66 region as being a 4th wave bounce, similar to the potential we see in the ABX. It will take an impulsive rally through the 22.66 region to suggest that the lows have been struck in the GDX, assuming the ABX is also impulsively rallying through its 14 region. Again, we will have to start seeing the laggards in this complex catch up and potentially even outperform to signal that a true low has been struck.

But, in conclusion, even though the GDX technically broke its recent (1)(2) structure, the metals charts still give me reason to remain bullish in the larger degree. As I noted to my subscribers, the short-term indications in my 144-minute silver chart suggest it is trying to bottom out, while the longer-term structure in ABX suggests it should also catch up to the rest of the market, which would allow the GDX to finally break out when the ABX is finally able to complete its longer-term pullback. Until such time, it seems the market is trying to teach us a lesson in patience, such as that exhibited by the biblical figure Job.

Housekeeping Matters

Lastly, it seems that Seeking Alpha has changed the way they tag articles. So, while my articles used to be sent out as an email to those that follow the metals complex, they are now only being sent out to those that have chosen to “follow” me. So, if you would like notification as to when my articles are published, please hit the button at the top to “follow” me. Thank you.

Disclosure: I am/we are long PHYSICAL METALS AND VARIOUS MINING STOCKS.

I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Additional disclosure: I significantly reduced my hedges, and only hold an appropriate amount for portfolio insurance at this time.

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